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Competition or cooperation? Latin America as a stage for US-China geoeconomics

Abstract: As of 2016, China has become Brazil, Chile, and Peru’s largest trading partner and remains an incredibly important financier throughout the Latin American region. Many analysts consider Chinese geoeconomics as a zero-sum game in which growing Chinese influence directly jeopardizes American leverage. However, this paper will address how although the US does seek to maintain economic influence in Latin America and protect the integrity of market liberalization, Chinese economic engagement in the region has not jeopardized US grand strategy. The Chinese-Latin American relationship has not provided China with significant leverage over Latin American foreign policy decisions that stand in opposition to US priorities. In response to the strategic dangers proposed by numerous analysts, I propose a different understanding of the international environment and new policy options based on strengthening economic systems and further incorporating China and Latin America into an infrastructure that ensures components of US grand strategy are not endangered.

 

In a 2016 campaign rally, then-candidate Donald Trump lambasted China for “cheating” American manufacturers and emphasized that “we can’t continue to allow China to rape our country.”[1] Trump’s successful “Make America Great Again” platform partially relied on this depiction of China as an enemy of US manufacturing and economic prowess around the world.[2] As Chinese investments and trade have grown substantially within the past fifteen years, some analysts describe China as a revisionist, emerging country challenging the existing global order and aiming to reshape the rules to align with national interests.[3] They suggest that China’s rise is unlikely to be peaceful as it continues to grow economically and extend its dominance throughout the world.[4] With regard to Latin America, analysts underscore the economic and diplomatic threats that increased influence of China in the hemisphere pose for the US.[5] These characterizations, however, fail to draw connections between trade relationships with China and foreign policy implications that may jeopardize US global leadership.

As Hal Brands explains, grand strategy is “a purposeful and coherent set of ideas about what a nation seeks to accomplish in the world, and how it should go about doing so” all the while maintaining “a clear understanding of the nature of the international environment.”[6] In the 21st century, the US seeks to ensure the continuity of international economic institutions (e.g. International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Trade Organization (WTO), World Bank) and the persistence of market liberalization. Analysts who depict the rise of China in Latin America as a threat to US interests propose confrontational means of engagement with China.[7] However, this paper will address how although the US does seek to maintain economic influence in Latin America and protect the integrity of market liberalization, Chinese economic engagement in the region has not jeopardized US grand strategy. The Chinese-Latin American relationship has not provided China with significant leverage over Latin American foreign policy decisions that stand in opposition to US priorities.

In response to the perceived dangers, I propose a different understanding of the international environment and new policy strategies based on strengthening economic systems and further incorporating China and Latin America into this infrastructure to ensure components of US grand strategy are not endangered. First, I will describe China’s geoeconomic strategy at large, outlining China’s primary foreign policy goals: namely, sustaining economic growth and development and ensuring energy security in the near and long term. I will also describe the economic activities China takes to achieve these goals. Second, I will present two case studies that highlight Chinese geoeconomic improvements vis-à-vis Latin America: Brazil and Chile, where Chinese engagement has been profoundly impactful. By discussing the political economies of these countries and their histories with the US, I will illustrate how historical trends have influenced each country’s proclivity to interact with China. I will then describe the specific Chinese economic activities in each country comparing them to those of the US. Lastly, I will outline how the US can realign its hemispheric strategy to repair and strengthen its ties with Latin American countries and provide avenues for an inclusive rise of China.

 

The ‘rise of China’ through geoeconomics

The rise of China can be traced back to a Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger era of rapprochement and the ‘opening up’ of China during the 1960s. Following the divergence and later non-alliance between the Soviet Union and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the 1950s and 1960s, China began a path toward entering the global economy and embarking on a successful mission of economic growth with a private enterprise market system.[8] The majority of Latin America’s non-alliance with the US or Soviet Union during this era was seen among Chinese policymakers as an opportunity to forge alliances and espouse communist thought in the ‘third world.’[9] While ineffective in shaping political ideology during the 1960s, the CCP was able to germinate economic and diplomatic relationships with Latin America that sprung normalization of relations during the late 1970s.[10] In the 21st century, there seems to be no evidence that Chinese economic relationships have persuaded Latin American nations to take up communism. Instead, diplomatic relationships deal more with securing economic opportunities and contributing to sizeable growth. From 1989 to 2017, Chinese GDP annual growth rate averaged 9.69 percent, an impressive statistic compared to the US average of less than 2 percent within in the last 10 years.[11] China’s remarkable growth coupled with its increase in global influence can be attributed to key geoeconomic strategies and engagement with the world.

Chinese priorities include sustaining high economic growth and ensuring energy security to meet the demands of a growing population.[12] To guarantee energy security, China has focused on leveraging economic tools to generate beneficial geopolitical outcomes.[13] By trading with the Global South to purchase natural resources and increasing participation in international economic institutions, China has improved it global reach. China’s Policy Paper on Latin America outlines its geoeconomic approach: “utilizing trade, investment and financial cooperation as driving forces, and identifying energy and resources, infrastructure construction, agriculture, manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation and information technology as cooperation priorities.”[14]

To sustain economic growth, China invests heavily abroad. In 2016 Chinese global investments set a record of $183.1 billion (a 43.5 percent increase from 2015) to make FDI outflows exceed inflows.[15] In 2014, development banks in China provided more finance to Latin American governments than the World Bank or the Inter-American Development Bank.[16] In Latin America, half of all contracts with Chinese policy banks are commodity-backed loans wherein Latin American countries use goods like oil and copper as collateral for Chinese credits or loans at commercial rates.[17] These commodity-backed loans represent an attractive alternative to loans from the IMF or other economic institutions that require structural adjustment reforms, including good governance political reforms or austerity measures.[18] Latin America is not unique as a region where Chinese investments strategically ensure long-term access to natural resources.[19] For example, Chinese investment activities in Africa also focus on extracting natural resources, providing infrastructure projects, and solidifying diplomatic relations to preserve China’s role as a leading manufacturing country.[20]

By positioning itself as a major commodities market and a source of manufactured goods, China has strengthened its position in the global economy.[21] China has become the largest export destination for Latin American goods like iron ore, oil, soybeans, copper, and other minerals.[22] To mitigate risks of urbanization, desertification, population growth, and loss of farmland, China invests heavily in these international commodities markets.[23] As the Policy Paper on Latin America describes, China has expanded its hemispheric strategy to cooperate with Latin America on establishing “long term supply of energy and resources products and local currency pricing and settlement, to reduce the impact of external economic and financial risks.” As the Chinese population continues to demand high-protein, high calorie foods, top Latin American exports of poultry, sugar beet, soya oil, vegetable oils, and soybeans help satisfy Chinese demand.[24]

By working through global diplomatic and economic institutions, China seeks to strengthen its global role. China’s priorities with regard to economic institutions include strengthening cooperation with Latin American nations to reform global economic governance and increasing representation and shareholding among developing countries in the World Bank and IMF.[25] Through institutions like the Forum of China and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (China-CELAC Forum), the two sides work to cooperate diplomatically and complement development initiatives.[26] In the first ministerial meeting of China-CELAC Forum in January 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping committed to increasing trade volume in Latin America to 500 billion USD and foreign direct investment (FDI) volume to 250 billion USD within ten years.[27] China has worked to consolidate its role as a global financial power by integrating into a variety of sectors and technological trends as well.[28] With the help of cheap loans from state owned banks, Chinese firms have engaged increasingly in mergers and acquisitions across Latin America, increasing Chinese stakeholders within the Latin American business landscape.[29]

China’s activities in Latin American commodities markets affect global supply, but the US can continue to play a key role in the region. Increased mineral extraction and Chinese demand for commodities increased prices for Latin American goods, which helped improve economic conditions.[30] However, relying on China as the dominant export destination suggests that Latin American producers and shippers are beholden to domestic Chinese markets.[31] As Chinese economic growth slowed in the past two years, Latin American exports shrank and Latin America’s trade deficit increased (see figure 1).[32] Some fear that China’s long-term objectives point toward trends of Chinese state-owned enterprises cornering markets and creating monopolies of commodities to the detriment of other global actors.[33] Chinese companies have not only purchased the commodities themselves, but also have begun to buy land in Latin America to produce goods themselves, including soybean farmland in Brazil.[34] In reality, these conditions (while potentially challenging for the US) are also considered problematic for citizens within the countries. Even as China grows in relative strength throughout Latin America, the US continues to be an essential trading partner for the region.

A stronger relationship between China and Latin America does not jeopardize the US’s relationship with the region. Some fear that the current situation is a zero-sum game wherein China’s increased trade relationship precludes US economic gains.[35] But free trade raises all boats. Chinese effort to integrate into a global industrial and technological environment through acquiring industrial assets in Latin America grows the pie for all.[36] Increasing terms of trade through increased commodities prices boosted investor confidence for the region and increased foreign exchange reserves.[37] Insofar as Chinese relationships do not include leverage over Latin American foreign policy decisions that contradict US national security priorities, Chinese trade in Latin America is beneficial for the region and the US.

 

Brazilian economic relationship with China

Brazil’s economic challenges of the past

Brazil’s experience over the last 35 to 40 years with the US and international economic institutions empowered by the US have challenged Brazilian-US diplomatic relations. During the 1950s to the late 1970s, Brazil underwent state-led industrialization that built up industrial sectors and protected national industries with high tariffs.[38] Mounting economic disequilibria, extensive borrowing due to negative real interest rates, and investments that did not meet expectations on returns meant that Brazil was unable to make payments on outstanding foreign loans and was consequently cut off from international financial markets.[39] To stabilize the Brazilian economy, the IMF offered loans under conditions that the government cut domestic social spending, increase taxes, privatize nationalized industries, raise interest rates, and increase exports by devaluing the Brazilian real.[40] The World Bank offered programs for loans that required structural adjustment policies to reorganize the Brazilian economy by focusing on increasing exports and lowering tariffs to enter the global economy.[41] These policies of the ‘Washington Consensus’ during the 1990s pushed Brazilian economic development toward a more open economy based on economic orthodoxy. However, inequality, poverty, and a concentration of wealth among elites remained largely unchanged.[42] The neoliberal reforms of the IMF led to a backlash among former urban and middle class industrial coalition members who had benefited from social programs and government subsidies prior to the IMF and World Bank reforms. Brazilian critics of the IMF’s structural adjustment policies argued that US imperialism was at work through imposing economic power over sovereign Latin American countries.[43] This historical relationship of economic tensions between Brazil and the IMF sets the stage for Brazil’s interest in engaging with China- an alternative source for economic development.

During the 2000s, partially in response to the Washington Consensus neoliberal policies, leftist politicians in Brazil gained power and implemented policies with democratic yet anti-neoliberal underpinnings.[44] Brazilian leftist president Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva’s policies are often categorized as moderate, working within democratic and capitalist systems to achieve redistributionist policies.[45] The Worker’s Party candidate, Lula emphasized a pursuit of social equity, justice and solidarity, and a transformation of the nation’s economic structures to better fulfill the social needs of the majority.[46] Much of Lula’s state social programs were possible because of the commodity boom of the 2000s, bolstered by newly flourishing ties with China. Brazilian leftist leaders had rejected the neoliberal policies endorsed by the US, tried to implement redistributionist policies that countered the austerity measures of the past decade, and found their financier in China.

 

The ‘China Boom’ in Brazil

In May 2004, President Lula led a delegation of cabinet ministers, state governors, and over 450 business leaders to China in an effort to establish closer ties with an expanding Chinese market. Leftist Brazilian economic leaders sought an alternative to the Washington Consensus policies of the 1990s defined, in their view, by slow growth and accentuated inequality. Former Chinese President Hu Jintao and Lula signed over 15 trade agreements that positioned Brazilian natural resources as attractive trades for Chinese capital to support infrastructure projects throughout Brazil.[47] For the next ten years, Brazilian natural resource exporters would reap the benefits of an expanding Chinese economy in what Kevin Gallagher describes as the ‘China Boom.’ Annual trade with China increased from around $2 billion a year in 2000 to $83 billion in 2013, a 4050 percent increase in less than 15 years.[48] China’s 2004 constitutional amendment to grant non-state owned enterprises legal status underscored Beijing’s encouragement for business development and the internationalization of Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).[49] These Chinese enterprises turned to Brazil to purchase natural resources, supply Chinese domestic manufacturing base, and feed the country’s large population.[50]

Chinese trade with Brazil relies predominately on natural resources like iron ore, soybeans, and oil in exchange for manufactured goods. During the ‘China Boom’ in 2006, 42.7 percent of all soybeans exported from Brazil and 37.8 percent of all iron exports went to China, indicating a substantial market share of China in Brazilian exports.[51] China continued to purchase Brazilian natural resources, and by 2013, China was Brazil’s largest trading partner.[52] Although China remains the largest trading partner on net, the US continues to be a significant partner and supplier of goods for the Brazilian market, accounting for 8.1 billion USD worth of exports to Brazil in 2016.[53] In contrast to China’s appetite for natural resources, US imports from Brazil are more diverse and focused on a variety of sectors. In 2016, 34 percent of China’s imports from Brazil were soybeans and 28 percent iron ore compared to the US that imported less than 3 percent of semi-finished iron.[54] The Chinese market dominance for Brazilian natural resources does not threaten US resource security. Rather, Brazil and the US compete for the Chinese market of natural resources but still collaborate in agricultural research in the US’s principal forum for bilateral agricultural discussion with Brazil, the Consultative Committee on Agriculture.[55]

The effects of Chinese engagement with Brazil generate significant results for all parties. As iron ore and soybeans become scarcer, increasing Chinese demand raises the price of goods. This helps local farmers and general economic development within Brazil. Chinese engagement has also decreased inequality within Brazil.[56] However, because of Brazil’s heavy reliance on natural resource exports, any dip in Chinese domestic demand for these commodities could have profound effects on Brazilian producers and shippers.[57] Working with China to diversify and solidify a more stable Brazilian economy could advance the US’s larger strategic goal of safeguarding stable, free market economies.

 

Chinese-Brazilian diplomatic ties

Chinese-Brazilian relations extend beyond trade and investment as well. Both members of the BRICS economies (a term referring to the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) aim to strengthen political and economic ties among other developing nations and rebalance global economic power. Both states advocate for reforms to the IMF to increase emerging states’ political voice in an international arena. In reality, these demands present relatively little leverage in foreign policy against the interests of the US. A new quota allocation and voting share reform to the IMF does not jeopardize American grand strategy of economic liberalization or the adoption of international norms (protection of human rights, democracy, etc.). While these international economic systems are integral avenues wherein the US can promote its economic goals, even with reforms to the way that countries maintain voting power would not necessarily preclude US leadership in the arena. In fact, despite some delays and roadblocks posed by the US Congress, the 2010 approval of the IMF’s 14th General Quota Review went into effect in 2014 granting Brazil, China, India and Russia greater voting power in the IMF.[58] While voting shares for Brazil and China increased to 2.2 and 6 percent respectively, the US maintained a voting share of 16.5 percent.[59] Additionally, in July 2014, the BRICS countries launched a New Development Bank that would serve as a move away from dependence on the IMF and World Bank for country-level financing.[60] Emerging nations’ appetites for a change in the balance of power continues to be an important issue. But more platforms for country-level financing are not a direct threat to American interests. So long as these new powers do not coerce other nations to turn against free markets or democracy, the US does not lose out.

Some may perceive Brazil’s rising economic strength and political rhetoric for a remodeling of international hierarchies of power as dangerously revisionist. By connecting Brazilian revisionist ideas to Brazil’s relationship with China, analysts seek to describe how the two emerging powers pose a threat to US global hegemony. Brazil’s request for permanent seat on United Nations Security Council during the 66th Session of the UN General Assembly, however, is an example of how China does not always support Brazil’s intent to increase its relative power. Both the US and China did not approve of Brazil’s request.[61] In this case, China is not the variable that incites or encourages Brazilian revisionist views. Instead, Brazil’s push for a greater voice in the international arena is a function of its increasing power over the past 15 years and a history of US ‘imperialism’ within the international economic system as the Brazilians view it.

 

Brazilian pushback to Chinese geoeconomics 

Despite the overall substantial economic growth that Chinese engagement in Brazil spurred, not all Brazilians are keen on China’s extractivism. Opponents to Chinese engagement in the region complicate the idea that Brazil’s relationship with China has emboldened Brazil to seek revisionist policies. Especially in the aftermath of the commodity boom and influx of Chinese manufactured goods, Brazilian manufacturers are wary of what cheap Chinese imports entail for competition at home and abroad.[62] In comparison to her predecessor Lula who established a strong relationship with China, former President Dilma Rousseff nuanced Brazilian relations with the emergent China. In 2011, Rousseff’s administration responded to competitive Chinese pressures by imposing import tariffs on Chinese steel products to protect domestic manufacturers and applied anti-dumping tariffs retroactively.[63]

Beyond the manufacturing industry, indigenous groups have put pressure on the Brazilian government to reconsider the relationship the nation maintains with China. Brazilian scholars and ecologists critique the detrimental trends of neo-extractivism, trade asymmetries of commodities and manufactured goods, and the strategies of development that exacerbate inequalities.[64] Particularly, the Munduruku indigenous group in the Tapajós basin of the Amazon condemn current President Michel Temer’s decision to utilize Chinese and European financing to turn the river into a grain canal by building dams along the river system.[65] The infrastructure project would allow Brazil to increase meat and grain production, supplying China with more natural resources.[66] However, much like the extractivist projects in the past with rubber, logging, and mining in the Amazon, the Tapajós river transport scheme would “accelerate deforestation, habitat loss and social problems.”[67] The current proposal incites centuries of history of colonization by foreign powers over local communities and indigenous struggles for land rights. Acceptance of Chinese dominance in Brazil’s natural resource market may not be as undisputed as some suggest.

Underneath the rapid growth in trade between Brazil and China are tensions and pushback to market domination. Moves to reform the IMF or UNSC, while telling of the foreign policy visions of each country, do not jeopardize US interests or national security. Instead, amplified engagement with China has served as a method for Brazil to further integrate into the international economic system despite some hesitations to Chinese influence. As a once closed-off country pursuing development through state-led industrialization, Brazil has come to be a frontrunner in modern global economy. By working within the free market economy and global infrastructure that the US helped define, Chinese trade and investments in Brazil have only strengthened the value of US leadership and worldview. Any discourse that some would describe as ‘revisionist’ cannot be attributed specifically to Brazil’s relationship with China.

 

Chilean economic relationship with China

Chile’s economic challenges of the past

The 1970 election of socialist Salvador Allende in Chile was seen in Washington as a major setback to its anti-communist global interests of the Cold War. After a CIA-supported military coup against Allende in 1973, General Augusto Pinochet assumed power and a group of young Chilean economists educated at the University of Chicago (the Chicago Boys) helped shape the Chilean economic system.[68] The Chicago Boys implemented market friendly policies with stabilization plans, financial, commercial, and structural reforms of raising taxes, cutting spending, privatizing firms, and deregulating key industries.[69] Their market path to economic liberalization within the authoritarian regime is often described as ‘pragmatic neoliberalism.’[70] The Pinochet regime centralized power, attacked the industries that had benefited from state-led industrialization of the past, abolished the trade union movement, and instituted a repressive state to impose reforms that would move Chile toward a liberalized economy.[71] In contrast to Brazil, Chile was largely protected from the Latin American economic crisis and other major economic imbalances because of the Chicago Boy’s economic reforms. Although Chilean politicians also responded to the authoritarian policies of the past with a shift to the left, market oriented policies were well engrained in Chilean economic system unlike Brazilian leftist leaders who gained power by criticizing the proposals and assumptions of the IMF.

Following Pinochet’s violent and repressive regime, opposition leftist leaders gained power and worked within the capitalist global order and free market economic strategy to guide the market toward schemes that would make it produce benefits for broad sectors.[72] President Michelle Bachelet, elected in 2006, is a social democratic leader who works toward a socialist agenda of redistribution of resources all the while maintaining a general commitment to a neoliberal consensus that would not jeopardize the economic gains made over time. Chile’s history of success through working with an export oriented growth model demonstrates how even leftist leaders of today (who to some degree criticize US hegemony and intervention of the past) continue to work within a global economic order constructed by the US.

 

The ‘China Boom’ in Chile

Chilean trade and investment with China does not change this acceptance of the global free market. In fact, the economic relationship strengthens it. In 2005, the two nations signed a free trade agreement (FTA)- the first Latin American country to do so with China- that included provisions for free entry for 92 percent of exports from Chile to China.[73] Like many other Latin American nations, Chile benefited from the ‘China Boom’ as Chilean exports to China grew an average rate of 21 percent per year from 2005 to 2013.[74] Similar to Brazil, natural resources dominate Chilean exports to China. As the largest producer and exporter of copper in the world with over one-third of the global output, Chile serves as a key supplier for China, the world’s largest consumer of copper.[75] Although Chile entered FTA negotiations in search of greater FDI for non-mining sectors, Chinese interests focused on natural resources and the mining sector.[76] Today, refined cooper and copper ore make up 45.5 percent of Chilean exports.[77] It is problematic that almost half of Chile’s export economy is dependent on Chinese demand for a specific natural resource. Nevertheless, the relationship is currently stable, without signs of China leveraging its market share to make Chile support Chinese interests in international economic institutions. In addition, Chile is taking steps to diversify its economy and seek investments in non-mining sectors.[78]

 

Chilean pushback to Chinese geoeconomics

Recently, greater pragmatism has prompted Chile and China to rethink how they do work together. “Falling revenues from exports to China, fewer Chinese petroleum and mining investments, and greater competition from Chinese product exporters and construction companies” shift China toward being seen as a competitor rather than a spring of economic opportunity in Latin America within the past few years.[79] Much like Brazil, the Chilean government pursued efforts to combat the asymmetric flow of goods with China. However, Chilean measures have focused less on imposing protective measures, and more on implementing proactive policies to diversify their economy. The Ministry of Economy provided 2.5 billion USD worth of low interest credits to help Chilean SMEs modernize as they represent 90 percent of new jobs created in the country but account for less than 1 percent of all exports.[80] Chile has also taken measures to invest in the information technology sector to attract businesses from around the world through programs like Program Invest Chile of the Corporación de Fomento de la Producción and Start Up Chile of ProChile.[81]

Chile has had a historically different economic relationship with the US (and the global economy) than Brazil. Despite the draconian cuts to social programs, violent political repression of the Pinochet regime, and persistent inequality, the Chilean economy benefited from economic liberalization of the past. Today, Chile’s engagement with China strengthens Chile’s integration into a global system. The Chinese-Chilean relationship is not a threat to the US as the relationship has not spurred Chile to combat or counteract US policies. It seems China is not the variable that prompts nations to adopt or enhance revisionist policies in Latin America. Chilean measures to strengthen their own economies serve as an example of how Chile respects free trade, but does not allow China to maintain total leverage over the country. China’s soft power is limited here.

 

Policy implications for US geoeconomics in Latin America

As described, the US does not have to conceptualize increased trade relations between China and Latin America as a threat to US global influence. The US can strengthen its international position without undergoing combative policies, instead focusing on how China’s relationship in Latin America can be leveraged to solidify US leadership. I propose four policy options for the US to address China in Latin America. First, the current administration should work to establish a forum for connecting the national security priorities of the US with specific economic statecraft. Second, the US should strengthen the institutions and norms that underpin the international economic order in which the US leads. Third, the US should signal to China that it is willing to cooperate in Latin America and incorporate China into US policies for the region. This may include Chinese-American cooperation in investing in Latin American SMEs in sectors beyond natural resources. Finally, the US should work to build better relationships through trade with Latin America that will signal to the region a new era of relationships- one in which cooperation, not coercion is the defining feature. The US can acknowledge its past mistakes, restate how the US market can offer diversity for Latin America, and cooperate with these nations in the international economic institutions. By reestablishing ties as partners not patrons with Latin America, the US can further the progress made by China in Latin America by bringing these nations further into the global economy- an outcome that benefits the US directly and can be offered as a ‘win’ for China as well.

First, without a clear structural connection between economic statecraft and national security policymaking, the US may encounter barriers to effective and efficient policymaking in the geoeconomic sphere. Former President Clinton’s Executive Order 12835 established the National Economic Council (NEC) that would “coordinate the economic policymaking process with respect to…international economic issues.”[82] Former President Obama’s Presidential Policy Directive emphasized the centrality of economic issues in US national security policymaking. But rather than focus specifically on the use of economics in achieving foreign policy goals, the NEC and National Security Council would address international economic issues more broadly.[83] While foreign economic policy refers to the means that may or may not be economic to achieve economic ends, economic statecraft (or geoeconomics) applies economic means to ends that may or may not be economic.[84] In the Chinese-Latin American case, a forum that would bring together policymakers to discuss and develop geoeconomic policies to pursue overall grand strategy priorities would be a smart option. This is not to say that the policies in this situation require combative geoeconomic responses to China’s presence in Latin America. Rather, developing a space to engage in these debates is essential when analyzing how (and how much) the US should respond to the rise of China generally.

Second, by reinforcing the institutions and norms that govern the global economic system, the US can preserve its leadership and incentivize China to integrate into the system rather than oppose it. Absorbing China into a system that favors market liberalization works to ensure the stability and survival of that system even if US relative power declines.[85] With regard to the alternative financial sources for development (e.g. China Development Bank and the New Development Bank established by BRICS states), the US should ensure that these new institutions and alternatives align with the goals of other US institutions. Tethering these new development banks to the norms and regulations that the US first established with other financial systems would reinforce US relevancy and importance. Third, the Latin America environment can serve as a stage for China and the US to cooperate in building up Latin American infrastructure and economic power. More robust economies, larger consumer markets, and increased efficiency for doing business abroad benefit all parties. Concretely, the US and China can jointly invest in Latin American SMEs and entrepreneurship initiatives in sectors beyond natural resources. This would strengthen capabilities and growth opportunities that will have lasting effects for the parties.

The past two years have signaled a possible turning point for China in Latin America. As the commodity boom fades and Latin Americans question the role that China plays in the region, China may be faced with Latin American pressures to decrease their presence. An opportune policy window, the current climate in Latin America is one ripe to re-establish a relationship with the US- the final policy suggestion. The 1823 Monroe Doctrine and the 1904 Roosevelt Corollary outlined the US’s role as a ‘big brother’ for the hemisphere, but many Latin Americans rejected the paternalistic relationship throughout the 19th and 20th centuries.[86] By offering diverse trade and better diplomatic relations with Latin America, the US can redefine their relationship with the hemisphere and offer Latin American economies what Chinese exports lack. Agreements like the North American Free Trade Agreement can demonstrate the value of transnational trade relationships. The current administration should focus on how trade agreements can support broader foreign policy goals of maintaining international relevancy and strength. Furthermore, the US can engage constructively with Latin America in international institutions. By dialoging on some of the critiques and reforms that China and Latin America often profess, the US can quell some of the reformative rhetoric that Brazil (and others) makes. Without conceding overall dominance, the US can readjust its position in international economic institutions with little to no risks in doing so. The US can work to incorporate these countries into the global economic system while at the same time addressing Chinese concerns.

Analysts who take a more realist interpretation of the dynamics in the region posit that any relative gain by China is a significant threat to the US. Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris suggest that preserving US primacy in the global system should be America’s primary objective; global dominance should be America’s overall grand strategy. The forces of globalization are such that containment of Chinese geoeconomics would be futile, and the US position toward China in the past assisted (not countered) Chinese ascendancy.[87] Integrating China into a global economic system led by the US would be “at the expense of the United States’ global preeminence and long-term strategic interests.”[88] However, Chinese geoeconomics around the world does not just face a US policy infrastructure. China faces an entire Western liberal order that is durable and easy to join.[89] Insofar as Latin America intends to develop their economy and provide social programs for its citizens, the Western liberal order can continue to be the method by which they do so. China can and should join in this endeavor. Additionally, US global cultural dominance extends into Latin America, and while the effects of reach are hard to measure, Latin Americans are still interested in maintaining strong relationship with this world superpower.[90] Focusing on how China can join the US in assisting these nations in moving toward that infrastructure will be a key aspect of long-term American grand strategy.

 

Conclusion

While it may seem counterintuitive that a more pervasive Chinese engagement in the hemisphere does not necessarily pose threats to the US, increased trade with Latin America is a route for both parties to adopt international norms that the US has developed and promoted. Trade and investment with Latin America can be viewed as a means to incorporate China more deeply into the liberal world order in which the US leads. In the Latin American case, US power and principles align to guide actions abroad by employing economic tools and trade initiatives to support a key principle of market liberalization. In other regions of the world where Chinese investments and development projects run deep (e.g. Africa and Central Asia), the Latin American environment serves as an example in understanding how the US can protect the ends of its foreign policy goals by developing means to incorporate China. As the debate about how to respond to the rise of China continues, US foreign policymakers have many paths to secure national interests. Policymakers are compelled to challenge and question the assumptions that underlie policy decisions. Questioning China’s growing economic relationship with Latin America is an important exercise in developing comprehensive and robust foreign policy.

 

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Ellis, Evan. “China’s geo-economic role in Latin America,”Geo-economics with Chinese Characteristics: How China’s economic might is reshaping world politics. Report. January 2016. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Geoeconomics_with_Chinese_Characteristics.pdf

Etchemendy, Sebastián. “Compensating Outsiders: Chile’s Market Model in the Comparative Framework .” Models of Economic Liberalization: Business, Workers, and Compensation in Latin America, Spain, and Portugal, Cambridge University Press, 2014, pp. 221–256.

Executive Order. No. 12835, 1993, p. 95.

“First Ministerial Meeting of China-CELAC Forum Grandly Opens in Beijing Xi Jinping Attends Opening Ceremony and Delivers Important Speech, Stressing Firm Grasp of New Opportunities in China-CELAC Overall Cooperation to Jointly Write New Chapter of China-CELAC Comprehensive Cooperative Partnership”. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, 08 Jan. 2015, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1227318.shtml

Fornés, Gastón and Alan Butt Philip, The China-Latin America axis: emerging markets and the future of globalization. Palgrave Macmillan, 2012.

Franko, Patrice M. The Puzzle of Latin American Economic Development. Second ed., Rowman & Littlefield, 2003.

French, John D. “Many Lefts, One Path? Chávez and Lula.” Latin America’s Left Turns: Politics, Policies, and Trajectories of Change. Ed. Maxwell A. Cameron and Eric Hershberg. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publ., 2010. 41-60.

Gachúz, Juan Carlos (2012), Chile’s Economic and Political Relationship with China, in: Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 41, 1, 133-154.

Gallagher, Kevin P., and Roberto Porzecanski. China and the Latin America Commodities Boom: A Critical Assessment. Working paper no. 192. University of Massachusetts Amherst, Feb. 2009. Web.

Gallagher, Kevin P. The China Triangle: Latin America’s China Boom and the Fate of the Washington Consensus. Oxford University Press, 2016.

Heine, Jorge. “The Chile-China Paradox: Burgeoning Trade, Little Investment.” Asian Perspective, vol. 40, no. 4, 2016, pp. 653-673, ProQuest Central; Sociological Abstracts, https://login.proxy.lib.duke.edu/login?url=https://search-proquest-com.proxy.lib.duke.edu/docview/1896828528?accountid=10598.

Hurwitz, Seth. “Economics and National Security: Six Questions for the Next Administration.
American Bar, 9 Jan. 2017, https://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/law_national_security/Economics%20and%20National%20Security%20(final).authcheckdam.pdf

Ikenberry, John G. “The Rise of China and the Future of the West.” Foreign Affairs, 15 Sept. 2015, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2008-01-01/rise-china-and-future-west.

“IMF Reforms: China, India, Brazil, Russia Get Greater Say.” The BRICS Post, 28 Jan. 2016.

IMF Members’ Quotas and Voting Power, and IMF Board of Governors. International Monetary Fund , 22 Nov. 2017.

Kamrany, Nake M., and Frank Jiang. “China’s Rise to Global Economic Superpower.” The Huffington Post, TheHuffingtonPost.com, 2 Feb. 2015, www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/chinas-rise-to-global-eco_b_6544924.html.

Katherman, Jennifer M. “Communist China in Latin America: Political Idealism and Economic Stratagems.” Emory Electronic Theses and Dissertations, Emory University, Emory University , 2010.

Kolb, James T. “Communist China’s National Strategy in Latin America.” Defense Technical Information Center, US Army War College, 1966, pp. ii-87.

Liptak, Kevin, and Jeremy Diamond. “Trump Trades Barbs for Flattery to Win over China.” CNN, Cable News Network, 9 Nov. 2017, www.cnn.com/2017/11/09/politics/donald-trump-china-xi-jinping/index.html.

Lyons, John, and Paul Kiernan. “Brazil’s Big Bet on China Turns Sour — Commodity Boom Lifted Nation, then Dropped it; ‘Resource Curse’ Induces ‘Nausea’.” Wall Street Journal, Aug 28, 2015, ProQuest Central; The Wall Street Journal, https://login.proxy.lib.duke.edu/login?url=https://search-proquest-com.proxy.lib.duke.edu/docview/1707745220?accountid=10598.

Mearsheimer, John J. “Can China Rise Peacefully?” The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, W.W. Norton & Company , 2001, pp. 360–412, nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204?page=show.

Monroe, James, “Message at the Commencement of the First Session of the Eighteenth Congress (The Monroe Doctrine),” 2 Dec. 1823, http://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/monroe.asp.

OECD/ECLAC/CAF (2015), Latin American Economic Outlook 2016: Toward a New Partnership with China, OECD Publishing, Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264246218-en

Pilling, David. “Chinese Investment in Africa: Beijing’s Testing Ground.” Financial Times, 13 June 2013, www.ft.com/content/0f534aa4-4549-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996.

“Salud!; Chile and China.” The Economist, vol. 413, no. 8913, Nov 15, 2014, pp. 14-n/a, ProQuest Central, https://login.proxy.lib.duke.edu/login?url=https://search-proquest-com.proxy.lib.duke.edu/docview/1625584694?accountid=10598.

Simeos, Alexander J.G., and César A. Hidalgo. The Economic Complexity Observatory: An Analytical Tool for Understanding the Dynamics of Economic Development. Workshops at the Twenty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011.

Tegel, Simeon. “Latin America’s Delicate Dance With China.” US News, 25 Sept. 2017, www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2017-09-25/latin-america-is-wary-of-china-despite-closer-ties.

United States, Department of Agriculture, Food Agriculture Service. “Brazil.” www.fas.usda.gov/regions/brazil.

Watts, Jonathan. “Brazil’s Mega Hydro Plan Foreshadows China’s Growing Impact on the Amazon.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 05 Oct. 2017. Web.

Weyland, Kurt Gerhard., Raúl L. Madrid, and Wendy Hunter. “The Performance of Leftist Governments in Latin America: Conceptual and Theoretical Issues.” Leftist Governments in Latin America: Successes and Shortcomings. New York: Cambridge UP, 2010. 1-17.

Wise, Carol. “Tratados De Libre Comercio Al Estilo Chino: Los TLC Chile-China y Perú-China.” Apuntes, vol. 39, no. 71, 2012, pp. 161-189, PRISMA Database with HAPI Index, https://login.proxy.lib.duke.edu/login?url=https://search-proquest-com.proxy.lib.duke.edu/docview/1436980465?accountid=10598.

Zanini, Fábio. “Foreign Policy in Brazil: A Neglected Debate.” Harvard International Review, Harvard International Review, 23 Oct. 2014, hir.harvard.edu/article/?a=7486.

 

Appendix

Figure 1. Latin America and the Caribbean, merchandise trade with China, $bn (2000-2015). “A Golden Opportunity.” The Economist, The Economist Newspaper, 17 Nov. 2016.

[1] Jeremy Diamond, “Trump: ‘We Can’t Continue to Allow China to Rape Our Country’.” CNN, Cable News Network, 2 May 2016, www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/donald-trump-china-rape/index.html.

[2] Kevin Liptak and Jeremy Diamond, “Trump Trades Barbs for Flattery to Win over China.” CNN, Cable News Network, 9 Nov. 2017, www.cnn.com/2017/11/09/politics/donald-trump-china-xi-jinping/index.html.

[3] John J. Mearsheimer, “Can China Rise Peacefully?” The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, W.W. Norton & Company , 2001, pp. 360–412, nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204?page=show. See also Robert D. Blackwill and Jennifer M. Harris, War by other means: geoeconomics and statecraft. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, A Council on Foreign Relations Book, 2016.

[4] Mearsheimer, “Can China Rise Peacefully?”

[5] Kevin P. Gallagher, The China Triangle: Latin America’s China Boom and the Fate of the Washington Consensus. (Oxford University Press, 2016). See also Blackwill and Harris, War by other means and Gastón Fornés and Alan Butt Philip, The China-Latin America axis: emerging markets and the future of globalization. (Palgrave Macmillan, 2012).

[6] Hal Brands, What Good Is Grand Strategy?: Power and Purpose in American Statecraft from Harry S. Truman to George W. Bush. (Cornell University Press, 2015), 3.

[7] Blackwill and Harris, War by other means.

[8] Nake M. Kamrany and Frank Jiang, “China’s Rise to Global Economic Superpower.” The Huffington Post, TheHuffingtonPost.com, 2 Feb. 2015, www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/chinas-rise-to-global-eco_b_6544924.html. See also: James T. Kolb, “Communist China’s National Strategy in Latin America.” (Defense Technical Information Center, US Army War College, 1966), iii.

[9] Jennifer M. Katherman, “Communist China in Latin America: Political Idealism and Economic Stratagems.” (Emory Electronic Theses and Dissertations, Emory University, Emory University, 2010), 40.

[10] Ibid., 42.

[11] “China GDP Annual Growth Rate,” National Bureau of Statistics of China, TradingEconomics.com. 1989-2017.

[12] Robert D. Blackwill and  J. Tellis. “Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China,” International Institutions and Global Governance Program. Council Special Report, 72, Council on Foreign Relations, March 2015, 9.

[13] Blackwill and Harris, War by other means, 9.

[14] China’s Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, 24 Nov. 2016, www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1418254.shtml. http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1418254.shtml

[15] OECD/ECLAC/CAF (2015), Latin American Economic Outlook 2016: Toward a New Partnership with China, OECD Publishing, Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264246218-en, 29

[16] Kevin P. Gallagher, The China Triangle: Latin America’s China Boom and the Fate of the Washington Consensus. (Oxford University Press, 2016), 65.

[17] Ibid., 46, 66, 74.

[18] Shaun Breslin, “Access: China’s Resource Foreign Policy,” China’s Geoeconomic Strategy. IDEAS Report, 12, London School of Economics, June 2012, 22.

[19] Gastón Fornés and Alan Butt Philip, The China-Latin America axis: emerging markets and the future of globalization. (Palgrave Macmillan, 2012), 76.

[20] David Pilling, “Chinese Investment in Africa: Beijing’s Testing Ground.” Financial Times, 13 June 2013, www.ft.com/content/0f534aa4-4549-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996.

[21] OECD/ECLAC/CAF (2015), Latin American Economic Outlook 2016: Toward a New Partnership with China, OECD Publishing, Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264246218-en, 30.

[22] Gallagher, The China Triangle, 169.

[23] “Salud!; Chile and China.” The Economist, vol. 413, no. 8913, Nov 15, 2014, pp. 14-n/a, ProQuest Central, https://login.proxy.lib.duke.edu/login?url=https://search-proquest-com.proxy.lib.duke.edu/docview/1625584694?accountid=10598. See also: Blackwill and Harris, War by other means, 41.

[24] “Salud!”, (The Economist, 2014).

[25] China’s Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean.

[26] OECD, Latin American Economic Outlook 2016, 13.

[27] “First Ministerial Meeting of China-CELAC Forum Grandly Opens in Beijing Xi Jinping Attends Opening Ceremony and Delivers Important Speech, Stressing Firm Grasp of New Opportunities in China-CELAC Overall Cooperation to Jointly Write New Chapter of China-CELAC Comprehensive Cooperative Partnership” . Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, 08 Jan. 2015, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1227318.shtml

[28] OECD, Latin American Economic Outlook 2016, 11.

[29] Ibid.,31.

[30] Breslin, “Access: China’s Resource Foreign Policy,” 20. See also: OECD, Latin American Economic Outlook 2016, 30.

[31] Breslin, “Access: China’s Resource Foreign Policy,” 20.

[32]  “A Golden Opportunity.” The Economist, The Economist Newspaper, 17 Nov. 2016, www.economist.com/news/americas/21710307-chinas-president-ventures-donald-trumps-backyard-golden-opportunity.

[33] Breslin, “Access: China’s Resource Foreign Policy,” 21.

[34] Ibid., 22.

[35] Blackwill and Harris, War by other means, 180.

[36] OECD, Latin American Economic Outlook 2016, 33.

[37] Gallagher, The China Triangle, 60.

[38] Patrice M. Franko, The Puzzle of Latin American Economic Development. (Second ed., Rowman & Littlefield, 2003), 59.

[39] Ibid., 86.

[40] Ibid., 127-132.

[41] Ibid.,98.

[42] Ibid.,100.

[43] Fábio Zanini, “Foreign Policy in Brazil: A Neglected Debate.” Harvard International Review, Harvard International Review, 23 Oct. 2014, hir.harvard.edu/article/?a=7486.

[44] John D. French, “Many Lefts, One Path? Chávez and Lula.” Latin America’s Left Turns: Politics, Policies, and Trajectories of Change. Ed. Maxwell A. Cameron and Eric Hershberg. (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publ., 2010), 54.

[45] Jorge G. Castañeda, “Latin America’s Left Turn.” Foreign Affairs 85.3 (2006): 28-43. Council on Foreign Relations, May-June 2006, 35.

[46] Kurt Gerhard Weyland, Raúl L. Madrid, and Wendy Hunter. “The Performance of Leftist Governments in Latin America: Conceptual and Theoretical Issues.” Leftist Governments in Latin America: Successes and Shortcomings. (New York: Cambridge UP, 2010), 6.

[47] Gareth Chetwynd, “Lula Seals Deal to Feed China’s Booming Cities.” The Guardian, 27 May 2004.

[48] John Lyons, and Paul Kiernan. “Brazil’s Big Bet on China Turns Sour — Commodity Boom Lifted Nation, then Dropped it; ‘Resource Curse’ Induces ‘Nausea’.” Wall Street Journal, Aug 28, 2015, ProQuest Central; The Wall Street Journal, https://login.proxy.lib.duke.edu/login?url=https://search-proquest-com.proxy.lib.duke.edu/docview/1707745220?accountid=10598.

[49] Fornés and Philip, The China-Latin America axis , 94.

[50] Ibid., 72.

[51] Kevin P. Gallagher, and Roberto Porzecanski. China and the Latin America Commodities Boom: A Critical Assessment. Working paper no. 192. University of Massachusetts Amherst, Feb. 2009, 9.

[52] Gallagher, The China triangle, 6.

[53] Alexander J.G. Simeos, and César A. Hidalgo. The Economic Complexity Observatory: An Analytical Tool for Understanding the Dynamics of Economic Development. Workshops at the Twenty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011.

[54] Ibid.

[55] United States, Department of Agriculture, Food Agriculture Service. “Brazil.” www.fas.usda.gov/regions/brazil.

[56] Gallagher, The China triangle, 62.

[57] Breslin, “Access: China’s Resource Foreign Policy,” 20.

[58] “IMF Reforms: China, India, Brazil, Russia Get Greater Say.” The BRICS Post, 28 Jan. 2016.

[59] IMF Members’ Quotas and Voting Power, and IMF Board of Governors. International Monetary Fund , 22 Nov. 2017.

[60] “BRICS Countries Launch New Development Bank.” Bridges, vol. 18, no. 26, www.ictsd.org/bridges-news/bridges/news/brics-countries-launch-new-development-bank.

[61] Ryan Berger, “Brazil Makes the Case for UN Reform.” Americas Quarterly, 23 Sept. 2011, www.americasquarterly.org/node/2902.

[62] OECD, Latin American Economic Outlook 2016, 30.

[63] Raymond Colitt, “Brazil Adopts China Import Tariff on Eve of Visit.” Reuters. Ed. Eric Beech. Thomson Reuters, 05 Apr. 2011.

[64] Andrea Cori, and Salvatore Monni. “Neo-Extractivism and the Resource Curse Hypothesis: Evidence from Ecuador.” Development 58.4 (2015): 594-607. ProQuest, 601.

[65] Jonathan Watts, Jonathan. “Brazil’s Mega Hydro Plan Foreshadows China’s Growing Impact on the Amazon.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 05 Oct. 2017.

[66] Ibid.

[67] Ibid.

[68] Sebastián Etchemendy, “Compensating Outsiders: Chile’s Market Model in the Comparative Framework .” Models of Economic Liberalization: Business, Workers, and Compensation in Latin America, Spain, and Portugal, Cambridge University Press, 2014, 221.

[69] Ibid., 222.

[70] Ibid., 230.

[71] Ibid., 222.

[72] Weyland, Madrid, and Hunter. “The Performance of Leftist Governments,” 11.

[73] Carol Wise, “Tratados De Libre Comercio Al Estilo Chino: Los TLC Chile-China y Perú-China.” Apuntes, vol. 39, no. 71, 2012, PRISMA Database with HAPI Index, https://login.proxy.lib.duke.edu/login?url=https://search-proquest-com.proxy.lib.duke.edu/docview/1436980465?accountid=10598, 170.

[74] Jorge Heine, “The Chile-China Paradox: Burgeoning Trade, Little Investment.” Asian Perspective, vol. 40, no. 4, 2016, pp. 653-673, ProQuest Central; Sociological Abstracts, https://login.proxy.lib.duke.edu/login?url=https://search-proquest-com.proxy.lib.duke.edu/docview/1896828528?accountid=10598, 658.

[75] Ibid., 656.

[76] Wise, “Tratados De Libre Comercio Al Estilo,” 162.

[77] Simeos and Hidalgo, The Economic Complexity Observatory.

[78] Wise, “Tratados De Libre Comercio Al Estilo,” 184.

[79] Evan Ellis, “China’s geo-economic role in Latin America,”Geo-economics with Chinese Characteristics: How China’s economic might is reshaping world politics. Report. January 2016. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Geoeconomics_with_Chinese_Characteristics.pdf

[80] Wise, “Tratados De Libre Comercio Al Estilo,” 170.

[81] Ibid., 172.

[82] Executive Order. No. 12835, 1993, 95.

[83] Seth Hurwitz, “Economics and National Security: Six Questions for the Next Administration.
American Bar, 9 Jan. 2017, https://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/law_national_security/Economics%20and%20National%20Security%20(final).authcheckdam.pdf, 7.

[84] Ibid.

[85] John G. Ikenberry, “The Rise of China and the Future of the West.” Foreign Affairs, 15 Sept. 2015, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2008-01-01/rise-china-and-future-west.

[86] James Monroe, “Message at the Commencement of the First Session of the Eighteenth Congress (The Monroe Doctrine),” 2 Dec. 1823, http://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/monroe.asp.

[87] Blackwill and Tellis, “Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China,” 4.

[88] Ibid., 6.

[89] Ikenberry, “The Rise of China.”

[90] Simeon Tegel, “Latin America’s Delicate Dance With China.” US News, 25 Sept. 2017, www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2017-09-25/latin-america-is-wary-of-china-despite-closer-ties.

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