Robert Zoellick | April 9, 2020

 

Watch the event here.

On Tuesday, April 7, Robert Zoellick published an article in The Wall Street Journal  titled, “The World is Watching How America Handles Coronavirus.” You can read the article here or access it at the WSJ here.

On April 9, Professor Peter Feaver joined former President of the World Bank, former Deputy Secretary of State and former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick in a conversation on the relationship between the United States and China in the midst of the global pandemic. The conversation began with a discussion of where the possibilities for cooperation exist and where the sticking points may be. Deputy Secretary Zoellick framed the discussion in terms of globalization with Chinese characteristics; that is, the idea that China’s foreign policy is centered around achieving Chinese interests while working largely within the framework of international norms and institutions. He pointed in particular to the modern version of the tributary states framework based on economic benefits in exchange for respect and international clout (such as the Belt and Road Initiative). He also noted successes in cooperation within international institutions, such as China’s support of sanctions legislations within the United Nations and China’s activity in U.N. peacekeeping.

The conversation then shifted to U.S. foreign policy and China’s impact on the U.S. ability to achieve foreign policy goals. Deputy Secretary Zoellick suggested that the United States has to figure out a way to work with China in order to address interests abroad; but the U.S. has to figure out how to stand for values at the same time. He advocated for respect while still pushing your position and values. In particular, he noted that the U.S. has to decide how to treat China as a stakeholder, particularly when there is at least a minimal level of cooperation necessary to emerge successfully from the global pandemic. He noted that the pandemic is the primary issue for both U.S. and China, and coalition-building with other partners is necessary as well; however, there are other issues that will return to the forefront after the pandemic, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and Chinese treatment of the Uighurs.

During the Q&A, Deputy Secretary Zoellick addressed the question of how American companies can and should stand up for American values given the coercive power of China and the size of the Chinese economy. He also spoke to the perspective of the rest of the world on the U.S.-China relationship, noting that most countries want a strong relationship with both and do not want to choose between them. Finally, the conversation turned to the question of development and international institutions and their role in emerging markets and economies, particularly in the recovery from the pandemic.

 

 

 

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AGS event summary by Caroline Anderson:

In her talk on “Energy Security and the New Geopolitics of Energy,” Dr. Sara Vakhshouri spoke with Dr. Brian Murray on defining energy security and how it affects the national interests of the U.S. and other countries. Dr. Vakhshouri transitioned from a journalist with an interest in energy to one of the leading experts on energy security. One key aspect she highlighted was the distinction between energy security and energy independence; in particular, a country does not need to be energy independent to have energy security so long as they have a diverse energy portfolio that allows them to walk away from different sources of energy without damaging the industry.

Dr. Vakhshouri spoke about how renewable energy sources are changing the dynamics of the energy independence as well as how the changing oil and natural gas market can affect U.S. energy security. She emphasized the growing confidence in the oil market given that prices are determined by algorithms which are less affected by supply disruption. Dr. Vakhshouri pointed out that although supply chain issues are not as much of a threat in such a saturated market, fluxes in demand can have a large effect on price and stocks in the “paper” oil market as is being seen now with the corona virus.

After finishing this topic, the discussion moved to the geopolitics of energy security as Dr. Murray and Dr. Vakhshouri discussed China’s evolving role in the energy market, the significance of the U.S. being a net exporter of oil and the rising role of Russia in the natural gas industry. Dr. Vakhshouri seemed to have an optimistic view of the future of the American energy market even with so many new players; she forsees a partnership between China and the U.S. with America utilizing China’s massive market and China willingly buying the U.S.’s oil exports. On the topic of alternative energy sources and natural gas, Dr. Vakhshouri was interested in the difference between buying oil and natural gas: oil can be a one-time exchange, but natural gas exchange requires a partnership due to the necessity of pipelines to transport the gas. These pipelines are investments by both the buyer and seller that are only profitable after 20-30 years and thus the relationship is more entrenched and difficult to separate. In terms of alternate forms of clean energy, Dr. Vakhshouri was optimistic about the future as many politicians and companies have called for cleaner forms of energy though she is scared for what kind of planet we could leave future generations if action is not taken to mitigate the harm we have already done.

 

John Bolton | February 17, 2020

Professor Peter Feaver spoke with John Bolton, former National Security Advisor 2018-19, about the challenge of national security in 2020.

More event photos on the AGS Facebook page.

Read Duke Today: John Bolton makes first public remarks since impeachment
Read the Duke Chronicle: John Bolton deflects questions at Duke talk due to WH ‘censorship’ of upcoming book

More coverage of the event in the news:
ABC News
The Atlantic
Bloomburg
Business Insider
Chicago Tribune
CNN
Daily Beast
Global Times
Good Morning America
Greensboro News & Record
The Hill
HuffPost
Independent
MSNBC
NBC News 
New York Post
New York Times
Raleigh News & Observer here and here
Reuters
Salon
Vanity Fair
Wall Street Journal
Washington Post
WRAL

More event photos on the AGS Facebook page.

AGS event by Alice Wu:

On February 12th, 2020, Gary Haugen, The CEO of the International Justice Mission, was welcomed to Duke University by the Center for Christianity and Scholarship and the Duke University program in American Grand Strategy. Haugen was the Director of the U.N. investigation in the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide, and has been recognized by the U.S. State Department as a Trafficking in Persons “Hero” – the highest civilian honor given by the U.S. government for anti-slavery leadership. 

During the event, Haugen delivered a lecture on the global struggle for justice, freedom, and human dignity and the way the contemporary university must recover the pursuit of moral knowledge in order to educate its students and citizens in making moral choices. He thoughtfully integrated creative metaphors about reality and belief and their relation to glass sliding doors (which left the room in uproarious laughter) and snippets of his past experiences battling apartheid in South Africa, fighting for human rights in the Philippines, and working with the U.S. Department of Justice on the topic of police brutality. Haugen’s emphasis on the distinction between reality and belief as well as commitment and profession enlightened the audience in understanding the inevitable triumph of reality and how any answers coming from moral knowledge will have authority and knowledge on the basis of appropriate reality. 

Haugen is no stranger to sobering experiences concerning the subject of violence and has plunged himself and his life into the understanding and experience of human violence and suffering. He spoke about the truth that “violence will come after you if you seek to oppose it”, and shared stories about how he’s seen that to be true in his own life and the lives that he’s held dear to him. To Haugen, moral knowledge empowers, and from moral knowledge flows the need for moral clarity, extravagant compassion, sacrificial courage, tenacious hope in the face of defeat, and refreshing joy. Despite working with so much darkness, Haugen believes that beauty, love, and goodness empowers people to do hard things and restores humans. He has seen and looked up to people who have acted morally without fear, and shared his lived belief that “When people are no longer afraid, they stand out.”

 

 

More event photos can be found on the AGS Facebook page.

AGS event summary by Reiss Becker:

On February 4th, 2020 the CEO of the Center for New American Security, Richard Fontaine, spoke with Professor Simon Miles about the efficacy of war. Fontaine referenced his recent piece in Foreign Affairs entitled “The Nonintervention Delusion” where he made the case that American withdrawal from many of our commitments abroad would have dramatically negative follow-on effects. In particular, he asserted that hastily leaving Afghanistan and Iraq could have a destabilizing impact. Despite this, he noted that politicians from across the political spectrum have advocated reduced foreign involvement.

To explain that phenomenon, Fontaine said various partisans propose withdrawal for a variety of reasons. Democrats typically want to invest more at home and view intervention abroad as a distraction from the pressing domestic agenda. Republicans echo that sentiment somewhat, but also want to reorient our strategic focus towards a confrontation with China. In response to these inclinations, Fontaine argued that the U.S. can juggle multiple balls at once. The U.S. can invest at home, confront China and fight lower-order interventions all at once. He maintained that, even if we want to shift our foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region, the problems of terrorism and Middle Eastern instability will persist and must be dealt with.

Fontaine also elaborated on how the U.S. needs to have a “staying” strategy when we intervene abroad, not just an “exit” strategy. He thinks interventions like the Obama administration’s incursion in Libya were poorly planned because the administration had no strategy for maintaining order in a post-Gaddafi landscape. Fontaine followed those comments by stating that “regime change” should be a policy of last resort.

Refuting the notion that many public policy figures in Washington are hawkish, Fontaine elaborated on how many members of the military and foreign policy establishment have family serving in the military and thus completely understand the stakes involved in a military intervention. Fontaine pointed to his former employer, Senator John McCain, whose son was a Marine in Iraq, as a sterling example of that reality.

Fontaine did not mince words on the failure of leading government officials in the lead up to the Iraq war. Describing the Bush Administration’s justification for the war as a “catastrophic intelligence failure,” he contended that the government must intensely scrutinize the veracity of its own claims, especially in an era of endless, open-source internet information. He concluded the talk by holding up the foreign policy approach of the Reagan administration as his ideal, stating that Reagan smartly took a tough public posture against the USSR while still sending out diplomatic feelers to reach rapprochement.

 

 

 

 

More event photos can be found on the AGS Facebook page.

AGS event summary by Kyle Melatti:

In last week’s American Grand Strategy Event with former Ambassador Rick Barton, he and Professor Kyle Beardsley engaged in a conversation on American Power and the Problem of Peace. Ambassador Barton is the Co-Director of the Scholars in the Nation’s Service Initiative at Princeton University. The two scholars discussed topics that remain relevant from the US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan to today.

Ambassador Barton stressed the importance of using American resources and capabilities to the greater good in a way that is completely exhaustive. By this, he means the United States should plan all aspects of military and diplomatic involvement with a country, especially what will happen after the fact. Ambassador Barton focused on two aspects of US military involvement to create stability and long-standing peace: the focus on locals and being a catalyst. He says that citizens in countries like Iraq and Syria have to commit to solving problems together. The United States must also catalyze stability by being helpful to countries and not seek ownership. He believes this is an idea politicians and generals in previous administrations did not fully comprehend until after the US had military control but without a plan. Overall, however, he has an optimistic view of the future as the DoD, USAID, and other government agencies only get better in efficiency and efficacy.

Listen to a Policy 360 podcast with Rick Barton and Judith Kelley, Dean of the Sanford School of Public Policy, here.